The Emerging Opportunities of AIGC in the Next Decade
The next decade is opening up exciting opportunities within the realm of AI-generated content (AIGC). On July 19, Meta, parent company of Facebook, launched Llama 2, a robust large language model that's available for free in research and commercial use. This model has emerged as a formidable open-source alternative to GPT-4 and signals a shift from previous Llama models that had commercial use limitations. As the AI market evolves, investment interest is rekindling in this dynamic sector.
As conversations about the future of human-like AI heat up, the AIGC movement is gaining momentum. However, opinions within the investment community vary on the longevity of AIGC's current spike in interest. Some investors are prioritizing returns and expressing skepticism about the immediate revenue potential of large models, advising caution in investment strategies as market enthusiasm cools. Others, however, see AIGC as still in its infancy, poised for rapid growth in the coming years. So far, AIGC has mainly focused on text generation, while the release of multimodal large models remains on the horizon. Breakthroughs from companies like OpenAI in image generation later this year could unlock new creative avenues.
Market sentiment reveals a disconnect between high interest in AIGC and declining engagement metrics. For instance, ChatGPT's traffic growth rate fell dramatically from 131.6% to a mere 2.8% between January and May. Furthermore, while the number of investments is rising, social media buzz doesn't seem to keep pace. This phenomenon of divergent opinions is common as new technologies emerge.
In the last 200 days of AIGC's rapid development, what consensus have investors reached, and where are the entrepreneurial prospects? Engaging with multiple investors has highlighted lessons learned during this AIGC boom and illuminated the ongoing transformations within the sector.
AIGC: The Dawn of a New Era
The surge in AIGC's popularity has ignited excitement in the investment community. According to estimates from the Quantumbit Think Tank, the AIGC market could surpass one trillion by 2030. In 2022, China's AIGC sector saw over 500 investment events, amassing more than 90 billion in investments. From January to June 2023 alone, financing in this industry approached nearly 5 billion across 46 transactions.
Reflecting on late 2022, Zhang Heng, managing partner at Xiaomiao Capital, observed that AIGC initially received limited attention within tech and investment circles. However, the launch of ChatGPT in March 2023 shifted AI discussions into the mainstream, flooding social media with related content and sparking enthusiasm and concerns around AI. As consumers began to access advancements in synthetic video and image technologies, Zhang sensed a "new paradigm shift in productivity" was underway, with AI poised to play an essential role across industries.
Bai Zhenren, Vice President of Linear Capital, concurs, viewing AIGC as a long-term opportunity reminiscent of the internet's evolution. He believes that AI will become deeply integrated into various scenarios, creating countless investment avenues. Wang Xiao, founder of Jiuhui Ventures, shares this optimism, predicting significant innovations and transformations from the impending wave of AI technologies.
Lu Qi, former global VP of Microsoft and COO of Baidu, underscores the need for active engagement with AI. He cautions against dismissing AIGC as merely a passing trend, as this would overlook its potential to influence global development profoundly.
As opportunities continue to arise in the coming decade, investors recognize that while they are cautious regarding large-model investments, there is consensus on several key points:
1. Infrastructure Opportunities: Solid investment possibilities exist in computational infrastructure, as large models are often perceived as a domain for wealthier investors.
Navigating the evolving AIGC landscape and understanding these insights can provide valuable guidance for future investments and innovations.
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