On August 5, the U.S. magazine Foreign Affairs published an article titled "America Is Not Prepared for Future Wars, but War Is Already Here," authored by former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. The article highlights how the nature of warfare is rapidly evolving, particularly illustrated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
On the Ukrainian battlefield, the future of warfare is becoming a reality, marked by the use of thousands of drones operated with artificial intelligence systems that navigate obstacles and identify potential targets. This transformation is not limited to Ukraine; conflicts in Myanmar and Sudan also showcase how insurgents and governments utilize drones and algorithms. In Gaza, Israel has deployed thousands of drones linked to AI algorithms to assist its forces in urban environments.
Historically, war has driven innovation, but today's changes are occurring at an unprecedented pace, shifting the focus from traditional measures of military might—such as troop numbers and advanced aircraft—to the dominance of increasingly autonomous weapon systems and powerful algorithms.
The U.S. Military’s Readiness
Despite these advancements, the U.S. has not adequately prepared for this new reality. Its aircraft, ships, and tanks are vulnerable to drone attacks. The military has yet to fully embrace AI, and the Pentagon's efforts to modernize are insufficient and too slow. To maintain its status as a global superpower, the U.S. must urgently reevaluate and reform its military structure. This includes updating tactics, enhancing leadership development, revamping equipment procurement processes, and providing robust training for soldiers to operate drones and use AI effectively.
While U.S. policymakers have traditionally been at the helm of the world's strongest defense apparatus, the inevitability of robotics and AI integration may challenge their comfort with extensive reforms. If the U.S. fails to lead this technological revolution, other entities that master new technologies may perceive the nation as a target.
The Impact of AI on Warfare
The conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine illustrate that AI is transforming how nations engage in conflict. Future major confrontations may see AI seamlessly integrated into military planning and execution. AI systems could simulate countless tactical scenarios in real-time, significantly shortening the time between preparation and action. Soldiers might conduct operations from remote locations, directing various robotic systems while remaining safe from danger.
Furthermore, the automation of warfare currently emphasizes aerial and naval drones, but ground combat is likely to follow suit. In the future, the initial phases of any conflict could be led by ground robots equipped with reconnaissance and direct attack capabilities. Russia, for instance, has deployed unmanned ground vehicles capable of launching anti-tank missiles and drones. Meanwhile, Ukraine has successfully utilized robots for casualty evacuation and bomb disposal.
AI systems guiding the next generation of machines will create detailed battlefield maps and predict points of attack using advanced sensors. Even when human soldiers are involved, they may be directed by drones providing first-person perspectives on enemy locations. These autonomous systems could clear minefields, absorb initial enemy assaults, and expose hidden adversaries.
The Need for More Autonomous Systems
With urban warfare on the rise, the significance of war automation is further underscored. Historically, battles mostly occurred in sparsely populated areas, but as urban areas grow and non-state actors adopt guerrilla tactics, future key battlefields will likely be dense urban environments. Such settings can escalate the lethality and resource demands of conflict, necessitating an increased reliance on robotic systems.
Armed forces will benefit from deploying small, mobile robots in urban streets and utilizing numerous drones to secure tactical positions. Guided by algorithms capable of processing visual data and making swift decisions, these systems could transform urban combat.
Another compelling reason for utilizing unmanned systems lies in their cost-effectiveness. Drones are significantly cheaper than traditional military aircraft, enabling nations to deploy swarms of drones for both surveillance and attack without a crippling financial burden. Such drone swarms may overwhelm conventional air defense systems, designed to combat only a limited number of threats.
For example, Iran's recent drone and missile strikes against Israel cost around $100 million, whereas U.S. and Israeli interception efforts surpassed $2 billion. In this context, international dialogue surrounding the implications of AI in warfare is critical.
Cooperation Between the U.S. and China on AI
The potential dangers of AI in warfare can have dire implications for humanity. Simulations using AI models developed by entities like OpenAI and Anthropic suggest that AI systems may escalate conflicts unpredictably compared to human decision-makers, raising concerns over scenarios that could lead to nuclear warfare.
Fortunately, both China and the U.S. seem to recognize the need for cooperation in AI development. In May, the two nations held their first meeting for an intergovernmental dialogue on AI in Geneva. This dialogue is vital for establishing a common understanding of AI in warfare, and while initial cooperation may be modest, it could lay the groundwork for deeper collaboration in the future.
The U.S. must ensure that its military AI is strictly regulated. It should prioritize systems that can differentiate between military and civilian targets and guarantee that AI operations remain under human command. Continuous testing and evaluation of these systems will be essential to ensure they function as intended in real-world conditions.
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