Investing in Artificial Intelligence: Cultivating Patience for Long-Term Success

The potential of artificial intelligence (AI) has gained widespread recognition in society, and when considering the returns on AI investments, a long-term perspective and patience are essential. Recently, some Wall Street analysts and investors have raised concerns about the disproportionate investment in AI compared to the returns it generates. They cite Cisco's stock performance during the early 2000s dot-com bubble as an example, suggesting that certain AI-related companies may be significantly overvalued. A Goldman Sachs analyst remarked that "AI technology has yet to reach the expected levels of use; spending heavily on solutions that are currently underutilized typically results in poor outcomes." Consequently, stock prices of key AI chip companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD have seen substantial declines in the past month, echoing this sentiment.

However, declaring a bubble in AI investments is an oversimplification. While concerns about "too much spending and too little return" in the AI sector are valid, it is important to take a more patient view. The fluctuations in stock prices can be influenced by various factors, which makes them an unreliable indicator of a technology's potential. For instance, after its turbulent ride during the dot-com bubble, Cisco's stock did not return to its peak for many years—even as internet technology continued to advance and drive significant societal transformation. Thus, the stock performance of certain companies does not always correlate closely with the potential for technological advancement.

Moreover, the consensus around AI technology among professionals and market experts has significantly strengthened. The market tends to generate effective feedback regarding the investment value and potential of emerging technologies. If a technology lacks development potential, gaining widespread consensus in society is challenging, as evidenced by the recent "metaverse" hype.

In the last two years, a wide array of stakeholders—including investors, enterprises, governments, and international organizations—has expressed significant interest in AI technology, endorsing its development potential. The rapid rise of platforms like ChatGPT over just a year underscores the expectation for emerging technologies to deliver financial returns quickly, which may be overly ambitious. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, recently stated that the risks of underinvesting in AI far outweigh those of overinvestment. His viewpoint stems from recognizing the critical importance of AI for future societal progress—companies that fall behind in this domain risk losing their competitive edge and market influence.

Importantly, the application of AI has not been slow; it is being integrated into numerous fields. For example, Tesla and several Chinese automakers are utilizing AI to train end-to-end autonomous driving systems. Additionally, Microsoft’s leadership recently highlighted a significant demand for AI solutions in the cloud computing sector, indicating that companies need to increase their investments in AI rather than scale back.