Super AI Will Emerge Within 20 Years, Outsmarting Humans by 10,000 Times - Masayoshi Son

Masayoshi Son, CEO of SoftBank Group, Reinforces Optimistic View on AI Technology

On October 4, 2023, during the SoftBank World Corporate Conference in Tokyo, Masayoshi Son, founder and CEO of SoftBank Group, shared his optimistic perspective on artificial intelligence (AI). He predicts that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—intelligence that surpasses human capability—will materialize within the next decade.

Son believes AGI will be ten times smarter than all of humanity combined, significantly impacting industries such as manufacturing, transportation, pharmaceuticals, and finance. He noted that the development of generative AI is already outpacing human abilities in several domains, stating, "The belief that AI, created by humans, cannot exceed human intelligence is misguided." He emphasized that AI can now learn, train, and reason independently, similar to humans.

During his speech, Son introduced the concept of artificial super-intelligence (ASI), anticipating its arrival in the next 20 years and claiming it could be 10,000 times smarter than human intelligence. He showcased a visual of a goldfish contemplating a question mark, challenging the audience, “Do you want to be a goldfish?”

Son expressed his ambition for SoftBank to become a global leader in AI applications. To spur innovation, the company launched a creative competition for employees focused on AI, offering a prize pool of up to 10 million yen. This competition has attracted over 100,000 submissions, with more than 10,000 ideas already patented.

However, he stressed the importance of regulating AI, stating, "Just as society sets regulations for car usage, AI should be regulated as well. Cars can be beneficial yet dangerous, and from a certain perspective, AI might pose even greater risks than nuclear weapons."

Son also conveyed optimism about Arm, a SoftBank subsidiary, highlighting its crucial role in the AI era amid increasing semiconductor shipments. Arm has a dominant presence in the smartphone market, powering 95% of devices globally. SoftBank acquired Arm in 2016 for $32 billion and previously sought to sell it to NVIDIA for $40 billion in 2020, but that deal fell through due to regulatory challenges.

In November of last year, Son announced he would step back from attending SoftBank's earnings meetings, handing day-to-day management to CFO Yoshimoto Goto. However, he made a public return in June at the SoftBank annual shareholder meeting. In his comeback speech, Son expressed enthusiasm about the transformative changes driven by AI, stating that the ongoing AI revolution and future investments invigorate him, and his goal is to transition from a defensive to an offensive strategy.

According to SoftBank Group's financial report for FY2022, released on May 11, the group reported net revenue of ¥6.57 trillion, showing a 5.6% year-on-year growth. However, it also recorded a net loss of ¥970.14 billion, a decline from a loss of ¥1.7 trillion in FY2021.