Will ChatGPT Follow the Internet 'Bubble' and Fade Away in Five Years?

Is AI Facing Its Own "Bubble" Crisis?

Recently, Turing Award winner Yang Likun predicted, "In five years, nobody will be using ChatGPT," highlighting growing concerns about the sustainability of AI technologies. With ChatGPT's user growth slowing and investors becoming more cautious, the once-thriving AI entrepreneurship landscape is facing significant challenges.

The recent decline in interest around AI-generated content reflects broader trends in the industry. While ChatGPT captivated global audiences at launch, many users have only engaged with it sporadically, drawn in by its novelty. As this novelty fades, a slowdown in user growth is inevitable. This decline results not only from mismatches between current models and user needs but also from emerging regulatory hurdles.

At a recent World Artificial Intelligence Conference, Elon Musk emphasized the need for more robust AI regulations, reiterating concerns about the potential risks AI poses to humanity. Stricter regulations may challenge many startups, particularly those unprepared to navigate these complexities.

Despite the cooling interest in large AI models, this does not diminish their future potential. Some industry observers liken the current AI landscape to the Internet bubble of the early 2000s, where initial rapid growth led to dramatic collapses and the failure of many startups. Many of these companies were in their formative stages, relying on unproven business models. However, a decade after that bubble burst, the internet matured and entered a new phase of growth.

Today, AI possesses transformative potential that may even surpass that of the early internet. Investors believe this AI wave is distinct from transient trends like the metaverse or blockchain, suggesting it could yield long-term value and opportunities over the next decade. This moment could signify just the beginning of a more sustained growth phase.

Emerging technologies often experience bubbles, which can ultimately foster positive development. Lu Qi, founder and CEO of Qihoo 360, asserts that we are still in the early stages of the AI era. While a bubble is likely following rapid growth, stronger companies will emerge from the aftermath, establishing leadership in the sector.

Zhou Hongyi, chairman of Qihoo 360, echoes this sentiment, arguing that bubbles can attract exceptional talent and capital. Despite current obstacles like underdeveloped technologies, some AI models are already transforming industries by streamlining entry-level tasks in graphic design and text composition.

Focusing on the innovative applications and potential of large AI models is essential, rather than fixating solely on current bubble anxieties.