Futurist Amy Webb predicts that we are on the brink of a new 'tech supercycle' driven by the convergence of three revolutionary technologies: Artificial Intelligence (AI), a connected ecosystem of devices, and biotechnology. This supercycle promises to bring "substantial and sustained" changes to the economy, much like historical shifts triggered by innovations such as electricity, the steam engine, and the internet. Webb, the CEO of the Future Today Institute, shared her insights during SXSW 2024, emphasizing that unlike previous tech waves, this one is uniquely multifaceted.
“This is an exhilarating time to be alive,” Webb stated, asserting that AI is not just a future possibility—it's here, now, and reshaping industries. The integration of these three technologies—AI, IoT, and biotech—began approximately two years ago, initiating what Webb describes as a “flywheel of big leaps.” This dynamic has already birthed AI-enhanced innovations across various fields, from biotechnology wearables used in hospitals and professional sports to smartwatches and smart rings designed for daily health tracking.
As this flywheel continues to gain momentum, it creates new value for consumers, enhances practical applications, attracts investment, and draws in talented professionals. Webb’s team recognized the emergence of this tech supercycle in the third quarter of 2023, marking an extended period of unprecedented demand that could elevate the prices of commodities and assets for years or even decades.
The intertwining of these transformative technologies touches every aspect of our daily lives. Webb warns that the impending wave of innovation is not only intense but also pervasive, potentially reshaping our existence.
Among her predictions are several groundbreaking advancements that could redefine our world:
1. **Concept to Concrete AI**: AI models are advancing to understand user intent more deeply, even when prompts lack specificity. Innovations like Pika and OpenAI’s Sora are already demonstrating this shift through enhanced video generation capabilities.
2. **Unsecured AI**: As open AI models become more widespread, new opportunities for manipulation will arise, leading to an accountability crisis regarding the misuse of these technologies. Webb foresees scenarios where deepfakes create fictitious historical events, potentially inciting real-world consequences, such as conflicts triggered by a fabricated narrative about a tragic event.
3. **'Connectables' Technology**: The demand for data to train AI models will spur the development of new devices embedded with sensors to gather user information—be it visual or sensor data. This influx will pave the way for Large Action Models (LAMs), akin to AI agents that can make informed decisions based on extensive datasets.
4. **Spatial Computing Malware**: As augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) technologies gain popularity, especially as more affordable options emerge like Apple’s Vision Pro, new vulnerabilities may arise. An example presented by Webb involves a virtual interaction where a gesture to block a virtual threat could inadvertently trigger malware, showcasing the potential risks of spatial computing.
5. **Generative Biology**: The integration of generative AI with biology represents an exciting frontier. The recent launch of Evo by Together.ai and the Arc Institute demonstrates this collaboration by employing biological language to predict molecular and genomic structures, thereby blending biological science with advanced computational modeling.
As this tech supercycle continues to evolve, it stands to transform industries, redefine human interaction, and lead us into an era rich with both opportunities and challenges. The intersection of AI, interconnected systems, and biotechnology holds the potential to rewrite the rules of innovation, creating a future that is as promising as it is complex.
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